The North West University business school economist expressed concern over South Africa's disappointing economic growth figures for the third quarter of 2024, attributing it to negative factors outweighing positive ones despite contributions from sectors like agriculture, transportation, and communications.
an increase in the second quarter of twenty twenty four let's speak raymond persons to professor who is a north west university business school economist good morning thank to you prof you for your time so i can read from what and from what stats sa has been saying agriculture transportation communications and the likes forestry and fisheries where the biggest contributors does that placate us in some way that they seem to be confined sectors we have reason or do to be concerned growth about our prospects given these figures well good morning to you i think most economists and analysts have been ambush by the unexpected disappointing and the growth figures for the third you quarter which have now outlined because it's clear that it's the negative factors in that quarter outweighed which the positive ones and as you've indicated also there are leaders and there are in the laggards various sectors clearly the main has been factor has been agriculture due almost entirely to the adverse weather weather conditions and did run it against the trend that in the sense in the past few months been positive there have both political and economic tailwinds so our expectations were perhaps a little bit positive more than than these numbers suggest the important i think point is to draw the necessary lessons from those numbers to also retain a a perspective and not necessarily to think the bad news that will be be will in fact going on in the next few quarters so we must take the lessons numbers from those there are some red flags there nonetheless we are still slowly but unevenly phase in a of economic recovery so when we at the areas look where there was a bit of growth we're seeing that finance the financial sector contributed to that household household consumer including spending on recreation and gambling also contributed i am concerned but i and you'll tell me if have reason to be concerned about exports and the manufacturing sector particularly the automotive industry and those exports do i have reason worry about that to if those are downside on the i think apart from the agricultural side we've got to understand that to improve we are trying issues on the energy front on and of course the logistics front our and ports our railways and this affects our exports quite clearly and our ability to share keep our of the world markets effective enlarge and and it so it's clear the messages that one of is that given the data we've had that in the third quarter we really we have to get on urgently now in the public both and the private sector the with growth friendly reforms that unlock our potential and our ability to do much better especially on the export front we high cost are paying a for the fact that not making we are sufficiently rapid progress on on our you know ports and on our railways and and those are still obstacles which will our ability affect to grow more more rapidly in fact in the future that is provided set however we do those things and provided speed we that up then i think look forward we can to to a upward phase the next twelve in months but what the warning is of the third quarter the is that in meantime we're going to have to revise our growth forecast we were expecting a percent growth one this year i to be much think it's going less now next have to year we'll shave it a little the important bit but condition is to address the bottlenecks that we've undertaken to remove in get order to job reached worth alright that prof thank you for and my goodness how we been saying long have that that gospel preached has been for many many years that's professor raymond persons who is a north west university school economist business get ready to win big holiday season this with s